MJDEFCON
Two threat levels, read from 1 (most severe) to 5 (normal): one for recession, built from the economy, and one for a market crash, built from prices. Shown as they stood when this snapshot was published.
Monthly levels since … (1 = most severe), with SPY
| Level | Recession | Crash |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | BRAKE | CRASH OVERLAY |
| 2 | NEAR TRIGGER | HIGH |
| 3 | WATCH / RECOVERING | WATCH |
| 4 | ELEVATED | ELEVATED |
| 5 | NORMAL | NORMAL |
Information, not a trading signal: neither level changes the book. The inputs and how they are combined are proprietary and not published.